Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia Białystok prediction: UEFA Europa League, Thursday 5 November

Levski Sofia host Jagiellonia Białystok in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday 5 November, kick-off 20:45 EAT. The match is played at Vasil Levski (Sofia). Levski Sofia are 17th in the table with 4 points from 3 games; Jagiellonia Białystok are 27th with 3.

Who will win Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia Białystok?

Levski Sofia are favourites, though not by much: 56% to win, 24% for the draw and 20% for Jagiellonia Białystok. Megapari pays 2.00 on Levski Sofia, more than our fair price of 1.79.

Two markets clear our thresholds for this match: Levski Sofia to win (56%) and Levski Sofia or draw (80%).

Odds: Megapari, as of 29 October 2026, 23:47 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia Białystok

Expected goals are 1.9 for Levski Sofia and 0.7 for Jagiellonia Białystok, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 51%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 53%.

Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia Białystok correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-0 at 14%, ahead of 2-0 (13%) and 1-1 (11%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 7 matches like this one.

Form: Levski Sofia and Jagiellonia Białystok in their last five

Levski Sofia have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +2. Jagiellonia Białystok have won 2 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -3. The results cover every competition in our data.

Levski Sofia: last five matches

Jagiellonia Białystok: last five matches

Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia Białystok head to head

Levski Sofia and Jagiellonia Białystok have not met in the matches our data covers, which go back three seasons.

How the odds have moved

Megapari's price on Levski Sofia has shortened from 2.18 to 2.00 since the line opened: the market has moved towards them. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.81 to 1.83, so the market now expects fewer goals than at the open.

Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

The rest of the UEFA Europa League is on our Europa League page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.