Ligue 1
Lille vs Lens prediction: Ligue 1, Friday 30 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Lille
Lens
- Lille
- 40%Megapari 2.45
- Draw
- 27%Megapari 3.65
- Lens
- 33%Megapari 3.00
No tip: no market clears our thresholds for this match.
xG 1.4–1.2 · likeliest 1-1 (13%)
Lille host Lens in Ligue 1 on Friday 30 October, kick-off 23:05 EAT. The match is played at Pierre-Mauroy (Villeneuve-d'Ascq). Lille are 4th in the table with 14 points from 7 games; Lens are 8th with 10.
Who will win Lille vs Lens?
There is little to separate the sides: Lille 40%, the draw 27%, Lens 33%. Megapari's 2.45 on Lille sits right on our fair price of 2.49.
No market clears our thresholds for this match, so it carries no tip in the daily lists; the table below is the model's full view of it.
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | Megapari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lille to win | 40% | 2.49 | 2.45 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.68 | 3.65 |
| Lens to win | 33% | 3.06 | 3.00 |
| Lille or draw | 67% | 1.48 | 1.44 |
| Draw or Lens | 60% | 1.67 | 1.62 |
| Lille or Lens | 73% | 1.37 | 1.33 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | 1.36 | 1.20 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 1.89 | 1.75 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47% | 2.13 | 2.25 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 72% | 1.38 | 1.47 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 57% | 1.76 | 1.54 |
| Both teams to score: no | 43% | 2.32 | 2.35 |
Odds: Megapari, as of 23 October 2026, 23:43 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Lille vs Lens
Expected goals are 1.4 for Lille and 1.2 for Lens, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 53%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 57%.
Lille vs Lens correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-1 at 13%, ahead of 1-0 (10%) and 0-1 (9%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 13.1% | 7.66 |
| 1-0 | 9.9% | 10.11 |
| 0-1 | 8.6% | 11.57 |
| 2-1 | 8.6% | 11.60 |
| 0-0 | 8.1% | 12.39 |
Form: Lille and Lens in their last five
Lille have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -5. Lens have won 2 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -3. The results cover every competition in our data.
Lille: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Oct 2026 | Galatasaray (home)UEFA Champions League | 2-4 | L |
| 17 Oct 2026 | Brest (home)Ligue 1 | 1-1 | D |
| 13 Oct 2026 | Arsenal (away)UEFA Champions League | 0-3 | L |
| 10 Oct 2026 | Le Havre (home)Ligue 1 | 1-0 | W |
| 20 Sep 2026 | Nice (away)Ligue 1 | 1-2 | L |
Lens: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Oct 2026 | Club Brugge (away)UEFA Champions League | 0-3 | L |
| 17 Oct 2026 | Troyes (away)Ligue 1 | 3-1 | W |
| 13 Oct 2026 | Sporting CP (home)UEFA Champions League | 0-2 | L |
| 9 Oct 2026 | Lyon (home)Ligue 1 | 2-1 | W |
| 18 Sep 2026 | Monaco (away)Ligue 1 | 1-2 | L |
Lille vs Lens head to head
In their last five meetings in our data, Lille won 4, Lens won 1 and none was drawn. The most recent, on 4 April 2026, finished Lille 3–0 Lens.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 4 Apr 2026 | Lille – LensLigue 1 | 3-0 |
| 20 Sep 2025 | Lens – LilleLigue 1 | 3-0 |
| 30 Mar 2025 | Lille – LensLigue 1 | 1-0 |
| 26 Oct 2024 | Lens – LilleLigue 1 | 0-2 |
| 29 Mar 2024 | Lille – LensLigue 1 | 2-1 |
The rest of Ligue 1 is on our Ligue 1 page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
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