Liverpool vs Arsenal prediction: Premier League, Sunday 1 November

Liverpool host Arsenal in the Premier League on Sunday 1 November, kick-off 19:30 EAT. The match is played at Anfield (Liverpool). Liverpool are 5th in the table with 12 points from 7 games; Arsenal are 2nd with 21.

Who will win Liverpool vs Arsenal?

Arsenal are favourites, though not by much: 46% to win, 27% for the draw and 27% for Liverpool. Megapari pays 2.27 on Arsenal, more than our fair price of 2.19.

No market clears our thresholds for this match, so it carries no tip in the daily lists; the table below is the model's full view of it.

Odds: Megapari, as of 25 October 2026, 19:35 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Liverpool vs Arsenal

Expected goals are 1.0 for Liverpool and 1.5 for Arsenal, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 51%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 55%.

Liverpool vs Arsenal correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-1 at 13%, ahead of 0-1 (12%) and 0-2 (9%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.

Form: Liverpool and Arsenal in their last five

Liverpool have won 4 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +3. Arsenal are unbeaten in 5 (4 wins, 1 draw), with 10 goals scored and 3 conceded. The results cover every competition in our data.

Liverpool: last five matches

Arsenal: last five matches

Liverpool vs Arsenal head to head

In their last six meetings in our data, Liverpool won 1, Arsenal won 1 and 4 were drawn. The most recent, on 8 January 2026, finished Arsenal 0–0 Liverpool.

How the odds have moved

Megapari's price on Arsenal has drifted from 2.22 to 2.27 since the line opened: the market rates them lower than it did at the open. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.90 to 1.81, so the market now expects more goals than at the open.

Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

The rest of the Premier League is on our Premier League page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.