Mainz vs Bayern Munich prediction: Bundesliga, Saturday 7 November

Mainz host Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga on Saturday 7 November, kick-off 17:30 EAT. The match is played at Mewa Arena (Mainz). Mainz are 8th in the table with 10 points from 8 games; Bayern Munich are 1st with 17.

Who will win Mainz vs Bayern Munich?

The model makes Bayern Munich clear favourites at 70%, with the draw at 16% and Mainz at 14%. Megapari pays 1.48 on Bayern Munich, more than our fair price of 1.43.

Five markets clear our thresholds for this match: Bayern Munich to win (70%), draw or Bayern Munich (86%), over 1.5 goals (87%), over 2.5 goals (73%) and both teams to score: yes (65%).

Odds: Megapari, as of 31 October 2026, 18:35 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Mainz vs Bayern Munich

Goals are expected: 1.2 for Mainz and 3.0 for Bayern Munich, 4.2 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 73%. Both teams score in this match with a probability of 65%.

Mainz vs Bayern Munich correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-2 at 8%, ahead of 1-3 (8%) and 0-2 (7%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 12 matches like this one.

Form: Mainz and Bayern Munich in their last five

Mainz have won 2 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -3. Bayern Munich are unbeaten in 5 (2 wins, 3 draws), with 16 goals scored and 9 conceded. The results cover every competition in our data.

Mainz: last five matches

Bayern Munich: last five matches

Mainz vs Bayern Munich head to head

In their last five meetings in our data, Mainz won 1, Bayern Munich won 3 and 1 was drawn. The most recent, on 25 April 2026, finished Mainz 3–4 Bayern Munich.

How the odds have moved

Megapari's price on Bayern Munich has drifted from 1.43 to 1.48 since the line opened: the market rates them lower than it did at the open. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.19 to 1.21, so the market now expects fewer goals than at the open.

Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

The rest of the Bundesliga is on our Bundesliga page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.