Man City vs Brighton prediction: Premier League, Saturday 31 October

Man City host Brighton in the Premier League on Saturday 31 October, kick-off 18:00 EAT. The match is played at Etihad (Manchester). Man City are 1st in the table with 21 points from 8 games; Brighton are 3rd with 16.

Who will win Man City vs Brighton?

Man City are favourites, though not by much: 53% to win, 23% for the draw and 23% for Brighton. Megapari's 1.74 on Man City is shorter than our fair price of 1.87: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.

Three markets clear our thresholds for this match: over 1.5 goals (78%), over 2.5 goals (60%) and both teams to score: yes (60%).

Odds: Megapari, as of 24 October 2026, 23:48 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Man City vs Brighton

Goals are expected: 1.8 for Man City and 1.2 for Brighton, 3.0 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 60%. Both teams score in this match with a probability of 60%.

Man City vs Brighton correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-1 at 11%, ahead of 2-1 (10%) and 1-0 (8%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 9 matches like this one.

Form: Man City and Brighton in their last five

Man City have won 3 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +5. Brighton are unbeaten in 5 (4 wins, 1 draw), with 14 goals scored and 0 conceded. The results cover every competition in our data.

Man City: last five matches

Brighton: last five matches

Man City vs Brighton head to head

In their last six meetings in our data, Man City won 2, Brighton won 2 and 2 were drawn. The most recent, on 7 January 2026, finished Man City 1–1 Brighton.

How the odds have moved

Megapari's price on Man City has drifted from 1.57 to 1.74 since the line opened: the market rates them lower than it did at the open. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.43 to 1.47, so the market now expects fewer goals than at the open.

Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

The rest of the Premier League is on our Premier League page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.