Man United vs Aston Villa prediction: Premier League, Sunday 8 November

Man United host Aston Villa in the Premier League on Sunday 8 November, kick-off 19:30 EAT. The match is played at Old Trafford (Manchester). Man United are 17th in the table with 7 points from 9 games; Aston Villa are 9th with 12.

Who will win Man United vs Aston Villa?

There is little to separate the sides: Man United 39%, the draw 25%, Aston Villa 36%. Megapari's 2.32 on Man United is shorter than our fair price of 2.56: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.

Two markets clear our thresholds for this match: over 1.5 goals (78%) and both teams to score: yes (60%).

Odds: Megapari, as of 1 November 2026, 19:35 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Man United vs Aston Villa

Expected goals are 1.5 for Man United and 1.5 for Aston Villa, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 58%. Both teams score in this match with a probability of 60%.

Man United vs Aston Villa correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-1 at 12%, ahead of 1-2 (9%) and 2-1 (8%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.

Form: Man United and Aston Villa in their last five

Man United have not won in 5 (1 draw, 4 defeats) and scored 2 in that run. Aston Villa are unbeaten in 5 (4 wins, 1 draw), with 13 goals scored and 3 conceded. The results cover every competition in our data.

Man United: last five matches

Aston Villa: last five matches

Man United vs Aston Villa head to head

In their last six meetings in our data, Man United won 4, Aston Villa won 1 and 1 was drawn. The most recent, on 15 March 2026, finished Man United 3–1 Aston Villa.

How the odds have moved

Megapari's price on Man United has drifted from 2.29 to 2.32 since the line opened: the market rates them lower than it did at the open. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.54 to 1.64, so the market now expects fewer goals than at the open.

Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

The rest of the Premier League is on our Premier League page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.