Marseille vs Toulouse prediction: Ligue 1, Sunday 1 November

Marseille host Toulouse in Ligue 1 on Sunday 1 November, kick-off 22:45 EAT. The match is played at Velodrome (Marseille). Marseille are 8th in the table with 12 points from 8 games; Toulouse are 11th with 10.

Who will win Marseille vs Toulouse?

Marseille are favourites, though not by much: 52% to win, 23% for the draw and 25% for Toulouse. Megapari's 1.90 on Marseille sits right on our fair price of 1.94.

Two markets clear our thresholds for this match: over 1.5 goals (80%) and both teams to score: yes (59%).

Odds: Megapari, as of 25 October 2026, 23:49 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Marseille vs Toulouse

Goals are expected: 1.9 for Marseille and 1.3 for Toulouse, 3.2 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 59%. Both teams score in this match with a probability of 59%.

Marseille vs Toulouse correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-1 at 10%, ahead of 2-1 (10%) and 2-0 (7%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 10 matches like this one.

Form: Marseille and Toulouse in their last five

Marseille have won 3 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +4. Toulouse are unbeaten in 5 (2 wins, 3 draws), with 10 goals scored and 6 conceded. The results cover every competition in our data.

Marseille: last five matches

Toulouse: last five matches

Marseille vs Toulouse head to head

In their last five meetings in our data, Marseille won 3, Toulouse won none and 2 were drawn. The most recent, on 7 March 2026, finished Toulouse 0–1 Marseille.

How the odds have moved

Megapari's price on Marseille has shortened from 1.90 to 1.90 since the line opened: the market has moved towards them. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.70 to 1.64, so the market now expects more goals than at the open.

Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

The rest of Ligue 1 is on our Ligue 1 page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.