Monza vs Atalanta prediction: Serie A, Sunday 8 November

Monza host Atalanta in Serie A on Sunday 8 November, kick-off 17:00 EAT. The match is played at Brianteo (Monza). Monza are 16th in the table with 7 points from 10 games; Atalanta are 12th with 11.

Who will win Monza vs Atalanta?

Atalanta are favourites, though not by much: 53% to win, 23% for the draw and 24% for Monza. Megapari pays 2.10 on Atalanta, more than our fair price of 1.89.

Two markets clear our thresholds for this match: over 1.5 goals (79%) and both teams to score: yes (59%).

Odds: Megapari, as of 1 November 2026, 17:07 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Monza vs Atalanta

Goals are expected: 1.1 for Monza and 2.0 for Atalanta, 3.1 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 59%. Both teams score in this match with a probability of 59%.

Monza vs Atalanta correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-1 at 10%, ahead of 1-2 (10%) and 0-2 (9%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 10 matches like this one.

Form: Monza and Atalanta in their last five

Monza have won 1 and lost 4 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -3. Atalanta have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -1. The results cover every competition in our data.

Monza: last five matches

Atalanta: last five matches

Monza vs Atalanta head to head

In their last three meetings in our data, Monza won none, Atalanta won 3 and none was drawn. The most recent, on 4 May 2025, finished Monza 0–4 Atalanta.

How the odds have moved

Megapari's price on Atalanta has drifted from 1.70 to 2.10 since the line opened: the market rates them lower than it did at the open. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.49 to 1.63, so the market now expects fewer goals than at the open.

Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

The rest of Serie A is on our Serie A page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.