Monza vs Napoli prediction: Serie A, Wednesday 28 October

Monza host Napoli in Serie A on Wednesday 28 October, kick-off 22:45 EAT. The match is played at Brianteo (Monza). Monza are 14th in the table with 7 points from 7 games; Napoli are 9th with 10.

Who will win Monza vs Napoli?

Napoli are favourites, though not by much: 52% to win, 25% for the draw and 23% for Monza. Megapari's 1.96 on Napoli sits right on our fair price of 1.91.

No market clears our thresholds for this match, so it carries no tip in the daily lists; the table below is the model's full view of it.

Odds: Megapari, as of 21 October 2026, 23:45 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Monza vs Napoli

Expected goals are 1.0 for Monza and 1.7 for Napoli, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 53%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 55%.

Monza vs Napoli correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-1 at 12%, ahead of 0-1 (11%) and 0-2 (10%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.

Form: Monza and Napoli in their last five

Monza have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +2. Napoli have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +1. The results cover every competition in our data.

Monza: last five matches

Napoli: last five matches

Monza vs Napoli head to head

In their last four meetings in our data, Monza won none, Napoli won 3 and 1 was drawn. The most recent, on 19 April 2025, finished Monza 0–1 Napoli.

How the odds have moved

Megapari's price on Napoli has drifted from 1.90 to 1.96 since the line opened: the market rates them lower than it did at the open. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.79 to 1.80, so the market now expects fewer goals than at the open.

Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

The rest of Serie A is on our Serie A page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.