Napoli vs Lazio prediction: Serie A, Sunday 8 November

Napoli host Lazio in Serie A on Sunday 8 November, kick-off 14:30 EAT. The match is played at Diego Armando Maradona (Naples). Napoli are 7th in the table with 14 points from 9 games; Lazio are 1st with 25.

Who will win Napoli vs Lazio?

There is little to separate the sides: Napoli 45%, the draw 27%, Lazio 29%. Megapari's 1.98 on Napoli is shorter than our fair price of 2.24: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.

No market clears our thresholds for this match, so it carries no tip in the daily lists; the table below is the model's full view of it.

Odds: Megapari, as of 1 November 2026, 17:07 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Napoli vs Lazio

Expected goals are 1.3 for Napoli and 1.2 for Lazio, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 51%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 54%.

Napoli vs Lazio correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-1 at 13%, ahead of 1-0 (10%) and 0-1 (9%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 7 matches like this one.

Form: Napoli and Lazio in their last five

Napoli have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +1. Lazio have won all of their last 5, scoring 16 and conceding 4. The results cover every competition in our data.

Napoli: last five matches

Lazio: last five matches

Napoli vs Lazio head to head

In their last five meetings in our data, Napoli won 1, Lazio won 2 and 2 were drawn. The most recent, on 18 April 2026, finished Napoli 0–2 Lazio.

How the odds have moved

Megapari's price on Napoli has shortened from 2.36 to 1.98 since the line opened: the market has moved towards them. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.96 to 1.87, so the market now expects more goals than at the open.

Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

The rest of Serie A is on our Serie A page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.