UEFA Europa League
NEC vs Omonia prediction: UEFA Europa League, Thursday 5 November
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
NEC
Omonia
- NEC
- 46%Megapari 1.78
- Draw
- 24%Megapari 4.25
- Omonia
- 29%Megapari 4.25
- Both teams to score: yes59% · fair 1.69Bet 1.50
xG 1.5–1.4 · likeliest 1-1 (12%)
NEC host Omonia in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday 5 November, kick-off 20:45 EAT. The match is played at Goffert (Nijmegen). NEC are 20th in the table with 4 points from 3 games; Omonia are 11th with 6.
Who will win NEC vs Omonia?
NEC are favourites, though not by much: 46% to win, 24% for the draw and 29% for Omonia. Megapari's 1.78 on NEC is shorter than our fair price of 2.15: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
One market clears our thresholds for this match: both teams to score: yes (59%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | Megapari |
|---|---|---|---|
| NEC to win | 46% | 2.15 | 1.78 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.11 | 4.25 |
| Omonia to win | 29% | 3.42 | 4.25 |
| NEC or draw | 71% | 1.41 | 1.25 |
| Draw or Omonia | 54% | 1.87 | 2.10 |
| NEC or Omonia | 76% | 1.32 | 1.25 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | 1.29 | 1.13 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 1.71 | 1.51 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41% | 2.42 | 2.51 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 68% | 1.48 | 1.64 |
| Both teams to score: yes Tip | 59% | 1.69 | 1.50 |
| Both teams to score: no | 41% | 2.45 | 2.45 |
Odds: Megapari, as of 29 October 2026, 23:47 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in NEC vs Omonia
Goals are expected: 1.5 for NEC and 1.4 for Omonia, 2.9 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 59%. Both teams score in this match with a probability of 59%.
NEC vs Omonia correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-1 at 12%, ahead of 2-1 (9%) and 1-2 (8%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.1% | 8.29 |
| 2-1 | 8.6% | 11.67 |
| 1-2 | 8.2% | 12.20 |
| 1-0 | 7.5% | 13.37 |
| 0-1 | 7.1% | 14.01 |
Form: NEC and Omonia in their last five
NEC are unbeaten in 5 (1 win, 4 draws), with 10 goals scored and 8 conceded. Omonia have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +1. The results cover every competition in our data.
NEC: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Oct 2026 | Groningen (home)Eredivisie | 2-2 | D |
| 22 Oct 2026 | Dinamo Zagreb (away)UEFA Europa League | 4-2 | W |
| 18 Oct 2026 | Fortuna Sittard (home)Eredivisie | 2-2 | D |
| 15 Oct 2026 | Levski Sofia (home)UEFA Europa League | 1-1 | D |
| 10 Oct 2026 | Ajax (away)Eredivisie | 1-1 | D |
Omonia: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Oct 2026 | AEK Larnaca (away)Cypriot First Division | 0-2 | L |
| 22 Oct 2026 | Benfica (home)UEFA Europa League | 1-4 | L |
| 19 Oct 2026 | Olympiakos Nicosia (home)Cypriot First Division | 2-2 | D |
| 15 Oct 2026 | Celje (away)UEFA Europa League | 3-0 | W |
| 9 Oct 2026 | Karmiotissa Pano Polemidion (away)Cypriot First Division | 3-0 | W |
NEC vs Omonia head to head
NEC and Omonia have not met in the matches our data covers, which go back three seasons.
How the odds have moved
Megapari's price on NEC has shortened from 1.92 to 1.78 since the line opened: the market has moved towards them.
| Bet | Opening odds | Latest odds |
|---|---|---|
| NEC to win | 1.92 | 1.78 ↓ |
| Draw | 3.84 | 4.25 ↑ |
| Omonia to win | 4.00 | 4.25 ↑ |
Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.
The rest of the UEFA Europa League is on our Europa League page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
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