Ligue 1
Paris vs Monaco prediction: Ligue 1, Sunday 1 November
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Paris
Monaco
- Paris
- 37%Megapari 2.38
- Draw
- 26%Megapari 3.80
- Monaco
- 37%Megapari 3.00
- Both teams to score: yes58% · fair 1.72Bet 1.55
xG 1.4–1.5 · likeliest 1-1 (12%)
Paris host Monaco in Ligue 1 on Sunday 1 November, kick-off 19:15 EAT. The match is played at Jean-Bouin (Paris). Paris are 4th in the table with 14 points from 8 games; Monaco are 5th with 14.
Who will win Paris vs Monaco?
There is little to separate the sides: Paris 37%, the draw 26%, Monaco 37%. Megapari's 2.38 on Paris is shorter than our fair price of 2.68: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
One market clears our thresholds for this match: both teams to score: yes (58%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | Megapari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paris to win | 37% | 2.68 | 2.38 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.86 | 3.80 |
| Monaco to win | 37% | 2.72 | 3.00 |
| Paris or draw | 63% | 1.58 | 1.44 |
| Draw or Monaco | 63% | 1.60 | 1.65 |
| Paris or Monaco | 74% | 1.35 | 1.31 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | 1.30 | 1.21 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 1.81 | 1.75 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45% | 2.23 | 2.25 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 68% | 1.47 | 1.47 |
| Both teams to score: yes Tip | 58% | 1.72 | 1.55 |
| Both teams to score: no | 42% | 2.38 | 2.32 |
Odds: Megapari, as of 25 October 2026, 19:35 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Paris vs Monaco
Expected goals are 1.4 for Paris and 1.5 for Monaco, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 55%. Both teams score in this match with a probability of 58%.
Paris vs Monaco correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-1 at 12%, ahead of 1-2 (9%) and 0-1 (8%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.2% | 8.21 |
| 1-2 | 8.8% | 11.33 |
| 0-1 | 8.0% | 12.56 |
| 2-1 | 7.9% | 12.69 |
| 1-0 | 7.0% | 14.20 |
Form: Paris and Monaco in their last five
Paris have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +0. Monaco have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +4. The results cover every competition in our data.
Paris: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Oct 2026 | Lens (away)Ligue 1 | 1-2 | L |
| 18 Oct 2026 | Rennes (home)Ligue 1 | 4-3 | W |
| 10 Oct 2026 | Lorient (away)Ligue 1 | 0-1 | L |
| 19 Sep 2026 | Strasbourg (home)Ligue 1 | 2-1 | W |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Lyon (home)Ligue 1 | 0-0 | D |
Monaco: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Oct 2026 | Freiburg (home)UEFA Conference League | 3-0 | W |
| 18 Oct 2026 | Lorient (away)Ligue 1 | 0-1 | L |
| 15 Oct 2026 | CSKA Sofia (away)UEFA Conference League | 2-1 | W |
| 10 Oct 2026 | Toulouse (home)Ligue 1 | 2-2 | D |
| 18 Sep 2026 | Lens (home)Ligue 1 | 2-1 | W |
Paris vs Monaco head to head
In their last two meetings in our data, Paris won 2, Monaco won none and none was drawn. The most recent, on 10 April 2026, finished Paris 4–1 Monaco.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 10 Apr 2026 | Paris – MonacoLigue 1 | 4-1 |
| 1 Nov 2025 | Monaco – ParisLigue 1 | 0-1 |
The rest of Ligue 1 is on our Ligue 1 page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
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