Parma vs Udinese prediction: Serie A, Wednesday 28 October

Parma host Udinese in Serie A on Wednesday 28 October, kick-off 20:30 EAT. The match is played at Stadio Ennio Tardini (Parma). Parma are 19th in the table with 4 points from 7 games; Udinese are 16th with 4.

Who will win Parma vs Udinese?

There is little to separate the sides: Parma 30%, the draw 30%, Udinese 40%. At 30% the draw is a real option, more likely than in most matches. Megapari's 2.49 on Udinese sits right on our fair price of 2.51.

One market clears our thresholds for this match: under 3.5 goals (79%).

Odds: Megapari, as of 21 October 2026, 20:35 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Parma vs Udinese

Expected goals are 0.9 for Parma and 1.2 for Udinese, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 43%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 50%.

Parma vs Udinese correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-1 at 14%, ahead of 0-1 (14%) and 0-0 (13%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 7 matches like this one.

Form: Parma and Udinese in their last five

Parma have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -6. Udinese have not won in 5 (0 draws, 5 defeats) and scored 5 in that run. The results cover every competition in our data.

Parma: last five matches

Udinese: last five matches

Parma vs Udinese head to head

In their last four meetings in our data, Parma won 1, Udinese won 3 and none was drawn. The most recent, on 18 April 2026, finished Udinese 0–1 Parma.

How the odds have moved

Megapari's price on Udinese has drifted from 2.38 to 2.49 since the line opened: the market rates them lower than it did at the open.

Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

The rest of Serie A is on our Serie A page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.