Porto vs Napoli prediction: UEFA Champions League, Wednesday 4 November

Porto host Napoli in the UEFA Champions League on Wednesday 4 November, kick-off 23:00 EAT. The match is played at Dragao (Porto). Porto are 34th in the table with 0 points from 3 games; Napoli are 22nd with 3.

Who will win Porto vs Napoli?

Porto are favourites, though not by much: 49% to win, 26% for the draw and 25% for Napoli. Megapari pays 2.23 on Porto, more than our fair price of 2.05.

No market clears our thresholds for this match, so it carries no tip in the daily lists; the table below is the model's full view of it.

Odds: Megapari, as of 29 October 2026, 12:05 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Porto vs Napoli

Expected goals are 1.6 for Porto and 0.9 for Napoli, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 51%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 54%.

Porto vs Napoli correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-0 at 12%, ahead of 1-1 (12%) and 2-0 (11%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.

Form: Porto and Napoli in their last five

Porto have won 3 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +2. Napoli have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +1. The results cover every competition in our data.

Porto: last five matches

Napoli: last five matches

Porto vs Napoli head to head

Porto and Napoli have not met in the matches our data covers, which go back three seasons.

How the odds have moved

Megapari's price on Porto has drifted from 2.07 to 2.23 since the line opened: the market rates them lower than it did at the open. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.84 to 1.87, so the market now expects fewer goals than at the open.

Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

The rest of the UEFA Champions League is on our Champions League page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.