PSG vs Troyes prediction: Ligue 1, Saturday 7 November

PSG host Troyes in Ligue 1 on Saturday 7 November, kick-off 22:45 EAT. The match is played at Parc des Princes (Paris). PSG are 1st in the table with 20 points from 9 games; Troyes are 17th with 5.

Who will win PSG vs Troyes?

The model makes PSG clear favourites at 86%, with the draw at 10% and Troyes at 5%. Megapari's 1.16 on PSG sits right on our fair price of 1.17.

Four markets clear our thresholds for this match: PSG to win (86%), PSG or draw (95%), over 1.5 goals (85%) and over 2.5 goals (70%).

Odds: Megapari, as of 31 October 2026, 23:47 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in PSG vs Troyes

Goals are expected: 3.2 for PSG and 0.6 for Troyes, 3.9 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 70%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 50%.

PSG vs Troyes correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 3-0 at 12%, ahead of 2-0 (11%) and 4-0 (10%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.

Form: PSG and Troyes in their last five

PSG have won all of their last 5, scoring 18 and conceding 6. Troyes have not won in 5 (1 draw, 4 defeats) and scored 1 in that run. The results cover every competition in our data.

PSG: last five matches

Troyes: last five matches

PSG vs Troyes head to head

PSG and Troyes have not met in the matches our data covers, which go back three seasons.

How the odds have moved

Megapari's price on PSG has drifted from 1.12 to 1.16 since the line opened: the market rates them lower than it did at the open. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.27 to 1.28, so the market now expects fewer goals than at the open.

Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

The rest of Ligue 1 is on our Ligue 1 page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.