Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo prediction: LaLiga, Saturday 31 October

Rayo Vallecano host Celta Vigo in LaLiga on Saturday 31 October, kick-off 18:15 EAT. The match is played at Campo de Vallecas (Madrid). Rayo Vallecano are 17th in the table with 9 points from 9 games; Celta Vigo are 9th with 11.

Who will win Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo?

There is little to separate the sides: Rayo Vallecano 40%, the draw 29%, Celta Vigo 31%. At 29% the draw is a real option, more likely than in most matches. Megapari's 2.32 on Rayo Vallecano is shorter than our fair price of 2.50: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.

One market clears our thresholds for this match: under 3.5 goals (78%).

Odds: Megapari, as of 24 October 2026, 23:48 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo

Expected goals are 1.2 for Rayo Vallecano and 1.1 for Celta Vigo, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 45%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 51%.

Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-1 at 14%, ahead of 1-0 (12%) and 0-0 (11%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 7 matches like this one.

Form: Rayo Vallecano and Celta Vigo in their last five

Rayo Vallecano have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -5. Celta Vigo have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +6. The results cover every competition in our data.

Rayo Vallecano: last five matches

Celta Vigo: last five matches

Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo head to head

In their last six meetings in our data, Rayo Vallecano won 2, Celta Vigo won 1 and 3 were drawn. The most recent, on 18 January 2026, finished Celta Vigo 3–0 Rayo Vallecano.

How the odds have moved

Megapari's price on Rayo Vallecano has drifted from 2.24 to 2.32 since the line opened: the market rates them lower than it did at the open.

Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

The rest of LaLiga is on our La Liga page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.