RB Leipzig vs Man City prediction: UEFA Champions League, Wednesday 4 November

RB Leipzig host Man City in the UEFA Champions League on Wednesday 4 November, kick-off 23:00 EAT. The match is played at Red Bull Arena (Leipzig). RB Leipzig are 30th in the table with 3 points from 3 games; Man City are 10th with 6.

Who will win RB Leipzig vs Man City?

Man City are favourites, though not by much: 58% to win, 21% for the draw and 21% for RB Leipzig. Megapari's 1.60 on Man City is shorter than our fair price of 1.72: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.

Four markets clear our thresholds for this match: Man City to win (58%), over 1.5 goals (83%), over 2.5 goals (66%) and both teams to score: yes (63%).

Odds: Megapari, as of 29 October 2026, 12:05 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in RB Leipzig vs Man City

Goals are expected: 1.4 for RB Leipzig and 2.2 for Man City, 3.5 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 66%. Both teams score in this match with a probability of 63%.

RB Leipzig vs Man City correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-2 at 9%, ahead of 1-1 (9%) and 0-2 (7%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 11 matches like this one.

Form: RB Leipzig and Man City in their last five

RB Leipzig have won 3 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +3. Man City have won 3 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +5. The results cover every competition in our data.

RB Leipzig: last five matches

Man City: last five matches

RB Leipzig vs Man City head to head

The two have met once in our data: on 28 November 2023, Man City 3–2 RB Leipzig.

How the odds have moved

Megapari's price on Man City has shortened from 1.60 to 1.60 since the line opened: the market has moved towards them. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.35 to 1.36, so the market now expects fewer goals than at the open.

Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

The rest of the UEFA Champions League is on our Champions League page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.