Real Sociedad vs Lyon prediction: UEFA Europa League, Thursday 5 November

Real Sociedad host Lyon in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday 5 November, kick-off 20:45 EAT. The match is played at Anoeta (San Sebastián). Real Sociedad are 14th in the table with 4 points from 3 games; Lyon are 12th with 6.

Who will win Real Sociedad vs Lyon?

Real Sociedad are favourites, though not by much: 46% to win, 24% for the draw and 30% for Lyon. Megapari's 1.98 on Real Sociedad is shorter than our fair price of 2.16: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.

Three markets clear our thresholds for this match: over 1.5 goals (82%), over 2.5 goals (60%) and both teams to score: yes (61%).

Odds: Megapari, as of 29 October 2026, 23:47 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Real Sociedad vs Lyon

Goals are expected: 1.9 for Real Sociedad and 1.6 for Lyon, 3.5 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 60%. Both teams score in this match with a probability of 61%.

Real Sociedad vs Lyon correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-1 at 10%, ahead of 2-1 (9%) and 1-2 (7%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 10 matches like this one.

Form: Real Sociedad and Lyon in their last five

Real Sociedad are unbeaten in 5 (4 wins, 1 draw), with 17 goals scored and 6 conceded. Lyon have won 2 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -4. The results cover every competition in our data.

Real Sociedad: last five matches

Lyon: last five matches

Real Sociedad vs Lyon head to head

Real Sociedad and Lyon have not met in the matches our data covers, which go back three seasons.

How the odds have moved

Megapari's price on Real Sociedad has shortened from 2.18 to 1.98 since the line opened: the market has moved towards them.

Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

The rest of the UEFA Europa League is on our Europa League page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.