Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano prediction: LaLiga, Sunday 8 November

Real Sociedad host Rayo Vallecano in LaLiga on Sunday 8 November, kick-off 18:15 EAT. The match is played at Anoeta (San Sebastián). Real Sociedad are 5th in the table with 19 points from 10 games; Rayo Vallecano are 11th with 12.

Who will win Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano?

Real Sociedad are favourites, though not by much: 53% to win, 24% for the draw and 22% for Rayo Vallecano. Megapari's 1.82 on Real Sociedad sits right on our fair price of 1.87.

No market clears our thresholds for this match, so it carries no tip in the daily lists; the table below is the model's full view of it.

Odds: Megapari, as of 1 November 2026, 19:35 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano

Expected goals are 1.8 for Real Sociedad and 1.1 for Rayo Vallecano, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 56%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 56%.

Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-1 at 11%, ahead of 2-1 (10%) and 1-0 (9%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 9 matches like this one.

Form: Real Sociedad and Rayo Vallecano in their last five

Real Sociedad are unbeaten in 5 (4 wins, 1 draw), with 17 goals scored and 6 conceded. Rayo Vallecano have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +1. The results cover every competition in our data.

Real Sociedad: last five matches

Rayo Vallecano: last five matches

Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano head to head

In their last six meetings in our data, Real Sociedad won none, Rayo Vallecano won 2 and 4 were drawn. The most recent, on 26 April 2026, finished Rayo Vallecano 3–3 Real Sociedad.

How the odds have moved

Megapari's price on Real Sociedad has shortened from 1.90 to 1.82 since the line opened: the market has moved towards them. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.74 to 1.73, so the market now expects more goals than at the open.

Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

The rest of LaLiga is on our La Liga page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.