Serie A
Roma vs Cagliari prediction: Serie A, Tuesday 27 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Roma host Cagliari in Serie A on Tuesday 27 October, kick-off 22:45 EAT. The match is played at Olimpico (Rome). Roma are 3rd in the table with 17 points from 7 games; Cagliari are 7th with 13.
Who will win Roma vs Cagliari?
The model makes Roma clear favourites at 68%, with the draw at 20% and Cagliari at 11%. Megapari's 1.40 on Roma is shorter than our fair price of 1.46: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
Two markets clear our thresholds for this match: Roma to win (68%) and Roma or draw (89%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | Megapari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roma to win Tip | 68% | 1.46 | 1.40 |
| Draw | 20% | 4.92 | 5.20 |
| Cagliari to win | 11% | 8.90 | 9.35 |
| Roma or draw Tip | 89% | 1.13 | 1.07 |
| Draw or Cagliari | 32% | 3.17 | 3.22 |
| Roma or Cagliari | 80% | 1.26 | 1.20 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | 1.36 | 1.19 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 1.90 | 1.78 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47% | 2.11 | 2.21 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 73% | 1.38 | 1.40 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 47% | 2.11 | 2.00 |
| Both teams to score: no | 53% | 1.90 | 1.74 |
Odds: Megapari, as of 21 October 2026, 05:07 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Roma vs Cagliari
Expected goals are 1.9 for Roma and 0.7 for Cagliari, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 53%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 47%.
Roma vs Cagliari correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-0 at 14%, ahead of 2-0 (14%) and 1-1 (10%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 7 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 14.1% | 7.08 |
| 2-0 | 13.8% | 7.24 |
| 1-1 | 10.1% | 9.88 |
| 2-1 | 9.3% | 10.80 |
| 3-0 | 8.8% | 11.42 |
Form: Roma and Cagliari in their last five
Roma have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +5. Cagliari have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -1. The results cover every competition in our data.
Roma: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Oct 2026 | Slovan Bratislava (home)UEFA Champions League | 4-0 | W |
| 17 Oct 2026 | Genoa CFC (home)Serie A | 2-0 | W |
| 14 Oct 2026 | Real Madrid (home)UEFA Champions League | 3-4 | L |
| 11 Oct 2026 | Como (away)Serie A | 0-0 | D |
| 19 Sep 2026 | Inter (home)Serie A | 2-2 | D |
Cagliari: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Oct 2026 | Monza (away)Serie A | 0-4 | L |
| 11 Oct 2026 | Juventus (home)Serie A | 1-1 | D |
| 19 Sep 2026 | Udinese (away)Serie A | 1-0 | W |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Atalanta (away)Serie A | 2-1 | W |
| 7 Sep 2026 | US Lecce (home)Serie A | 1-0 | W |
Roma vs Cagliari head to head
In their last five meetings in our data, Roma won 3, Cagliari won 1 and 1 was drawn. The most recent, on 9 February 2026, finished Roma 2–0 Cagliari.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 9 Feb 2026 | Roma – CagliariSerie A | 2-0 |
| 7 Dec 2025 | Cagliari – RomaSerie A | 1-0 |
| 16 Mar 2025 | Roma – CagliariSerie A | 1-0 |
| 18 Aug 2024 | Cagliari – RomaSerie A | 0-0 |
| 5 Feb 2024 | Roma – CagliariSerie A | 4-0 |
The rest of Serie A is on our Serie A page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
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