Santa Clara vs Benfica prediction: Primeira Liga, Monday 26 October

Santa Clara host Benfica in Primeira Liga on Monday 26 October, kick-off 21:45 EAT. The match is played at Estadio de Sao Miguel (Ponta Delgada). Santa Clara are 4th in the table with 18 points from 8 games; Benfica are 2nd with 19.

Who will win Santa Clara vs Benfica?

The model makes Benfica clear favourites at 63%, with the draw at 23% and Santa Clara at 14%. Megapari's 1.42 on Benfica is shorter than our fair price of 1.59: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.

Two markets clear our thresholds for this match: Benfica to win (63%) and draw or Benfica (86%).

Odds: Megapari, as of 21 October 2026, 05:07 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Santa Clara vs Benfica

Expected goals are 0.8 for Santa Clara and 1.7 for Benfica, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 49%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 47%.

Santa Clara vs Benfica correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 0-1 at 14%, ahead of 0-2 (12%) and 1-1 (12%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 7 matches like this one.

Form: Santa Clara and Benfica in their last five

Santa Clara are unbeaten in 5 (3 wins, 2 draws), with 8 goals scored and 2 conceded. Benfica have won 4 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +7. The results cover every competition in our data.

Santa Clara: last five matches

Benfica: last five matches

Santa Clara vs Benfica head to head

In their last four meetings in our data, Santa Clara won none, Benfica won 3 and 1 was drawn. The most recent, on 13 February 2026, finished Santa Clara 1–2 Benfica.

How the odds have moved

Megapari's price on Benfica has drifted from 1.40 to 1.42 since the line opened: the market rates them lower than it did at the open. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.81 to 1.86, so the market now expects fewer goals than at the open.

Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

All the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.