Shakhtar Donetsk vs Sporting CP prediction: UEFA Champions League, Tuesday 3 November

Shakhtar Donetsk host Sporting CP in the UEFA Champions League on Tuesday 3 November, kick-off 20:45 EAT. The match is played at Stamford Bridge (London). Shakhtar Donetsk are 17th in the table with 4 points from 3 games; Sporting CP are 12th with 6.

Who will win Shakhtar Donetsk vs Sporting CP?

There is little to separate the sides: Shakhtar Donetsk 33%, the draw 26%, Sporting CP 42%. Megapari's 1.97 on Sporting CP is shorter than our fair price of 2.40: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.

No market clears our thresholds for this match, so it carries no tip in the daily lists; the table below is the model's full view of it.

Odds: Megapari, as of 27 October 2026, 23:46 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Shakhtar Donetsk vs Sporting CP

Expected goals are 1.4 for Shakhtar Donetsk and 1.3 for Sporting CP, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 55%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 57%.

Shakhtar Donetsk vs Sporting CP correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-1 at 13%, ahead of 1-0 (9%) and 2-1 (9%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.

Form: Shakhtar Donetsk and Sporting CP in their last five

Shakhtar Donetsk have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +5. Sporting CP have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +2. The results cover every competition in our data.

Shakhtar Donetsk: last five matches

Sporting CP: last five matches

Shakhtar Donetsk vs Sporting CP head to head

Shakhtar Donetsk and Sporting CP have not met in the matches our data covers, which go back three seasons.

How the odds have moved

Megapari's price on Sporting CP has drifted from 1.95 to 1.97 since the line opened: the market rates them lower than it did at the open. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.64 to 1.70, so the market now expects fewer goals than at the open.

Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

The rest of the UEFA Champions League is on our Champions League page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.