Sparta Prague vs Bournemouth prediction: UEFA Europa League, Thursday 5 November

Sparta Prague host Bournemouth in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday 5 November, kick-off 20:45 EAT. The match is played at epet ARENA (Prague). Sparta Prague are 16th in the table with 4 points from 3 games; Bournemouth are 3rd with 9.

Who will win Sparta Prague vs Bournemouth?

Bournemouth are favourites, though not by much: 55% to win, 23% for the draw and 22% for Sparta Prague. Megapari's 1.62 on Bournemouth is shorter than our fair price of 1.82: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.

One market clears our thresholds for this match: over 1.5 goals (79%).

Odds: Megapari, as of 29 October 2026, 23:47 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Sparta Prague vs Bournemouth

Goals are expected: 1.2 for Sparta Prague and 1.8 for Bournemouth, 3.0 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 58%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 57%.

Sparta Prague vs Bournemouth correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-1 at 11%, ahead of 1-2 (10%) and 0-1 (8%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 9 matches like this one.

Form: Sparta Prague and Bournemouth in their last five

Sparta Prague have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +5. Bournemouth have won 4 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +7. The results cover every competition in our data.

Sparta Prague: last five matches

Bournemouth: last five matches

Sparta Prague vs Bournemouth head to head

Sparta Prague and Bournemouth have not met in the matches our data covers, which go back three seasons.

How the odds have moved

Megapari's price on Bournemouth has shortened from 1.63 to 1.62 since the line opened: the market has moved towards them.

Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

The rest of the UEFA Europa League is on our Europa League page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.