UEFA Europa League
Sturm Graz vs Celje prediction: UEFA Europa League, Thursday 5 November
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Sturm Graz host Celje in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday 5 November, kick-off 23:00 EAT. The match is played at Merkur Arena (Graz). Sturm Graz are 19th in the table with 4 points from 3 games; Celje are 29th with 1.
Who will win Sturm Graz vs Celje?
Sturm Graz are favourites, though not by much: 59% to win, 23% for the draw and 18% for Celje. Megapari's 1.61 on Sturm Graz is shorter than our fair price of 1.69: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.
Two markets clear our thresholds for this match: Sturm Graz to win (59%) and Sturm Graz or draw (82%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | Megapari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sturm Graz to win Tip | 59% | 1.69 | 1.61 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.42 | 4.46 |
| Celje to win | 18% | 5.48 | 5.37 |
| Sturm Graz or draw Tip | 82% | 1.22 | 1.18 |
| Draw or Celje | 41% | 2.44 | 2.40 |
| Sturm Graz or Celje | 77% | 1.29 | 1.23 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | 1.31 | 1.18 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 1.78 | 1.64 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44% | 2.28 | 2.37 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 69% | 1.44 | 1.53 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 55% | 1.82 | 1.64 |
| Both teams to score: no | 45% | 2.22 | 2.15 |
Odds: Megapari, as of 29 October 2026, 23:47 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Sturm Graz vs Celje
Expected goals are 1.9 for Sturm Graz and 0.9 for Celje, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 56%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 55%.
Sturm Graz vs Celje correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 1-1 at 11%, ahead of 1-0 (11%) and 2-0 (10%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 9 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.2% | 8.91 |
| 1-0 | 10.7% | 9.32 |
| 2-0 | 10.4% | 9.60 |
| 2-1 | 9.9% | 10.12 |
| 0-0 | 6.6% | 15.08 |
Form: Sturm Graz and Celje in their last five
Sturm Graz have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +5. Celje have not won in 5 (2 draws, 3 defeats) and scored 4 in that run. The results cover every competition in our data.
Sturm Graz: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Oct 2026 | Ried (home)Austrian Bundesliga | 2-2 | D |
| 22 Oct 2026 | Marseille (home)UEFA Europa League | 1-0 | W |
| 18 Oct 2026 | Grazer AK (home)Austrian Bundesliga | 6-1 | W |
| 15 Oct 2026 | Bournemouth (away)UEFA Europa League | 0-3 | L |
| 10 Oct 2026 | Austria Wien (away)Austrian Bundesliga | 2-0 | W |
Celje: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Oct 2026 | Red Bull Salzburg (home)UEFA Europa League | 2-2 | D |
| 15 Oct 2026 | Omonia (home)UEFA Europa League | 0-3 | L |
| 16 Sep 2026 | Leverkusen (away)UEFA Europa League | 0-2 | L |
| 26 Aug 2026 | Slovan Bratislava (home)UEFA Champions League | 1-2 | L |
| 19 Aug 2026 | Slovan Bratislava (away)UEFA Champions League | 1-1 | D |
Sturm Graz vs Celje head to head
Sturm Graz and Celje have not met in the matches our data covers, which go back three seasons.
How the odds have moved
Megapari's price on Sturm Graz has shortened from 1.75 to 1.61 since the line opened: the market has moved towards them.
| Bet | Opening odds | Latest odds |
|---|---|---|
| Sturm Graz to win | 1.75 | 1.61 ↓ |
| Draw | 4.14 | 4.46 ↑ |
| Celje to win | 4.56 | 5.37 ↑ |
Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.
The rest of the UEFA Europa League is on our Europa League page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
+100% bonus on your first deposit with promo code TIPSQUANT