Sunderland vs Chelsea prediction: Premier League, Sunday 8 November

Sunderland host Chelsea in the Premier League on Sunday 8 November, kick-off 17:00 EAT. The match is played at Stadium of Light (Sunderland). Sunderland are 20th in the table with 5 points from 9 games; Chelsea are 4th with 16.

Who will win Sunderland vs Chelsea?

Chelsea are favourites, though not by much: 47% to win, 26% for the draw and 27% for Sunderland. Megapari's 2.15 on Chelsea sits right on our fair price of 2.12.

No market clears our thresholds for this match, so it carries no tip in the daily lists; the table below is the model's full view of it.

Odds: Megapari, as of 1 November 2026, 17:07 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Sunderland vs Chelsea

Expected goals are 1.1 for Sunderland and 1.6 for Chelsea, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 52%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 55%.

Sunderland vs Chelsea correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-1 at 13%, ahead of 0-1 (10%) and 1-2 (9%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.

Form: Sunderland and Chelsea in their last five

Sunderland have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -3. Chelsea have won 3 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +3. The results cover every competition in our data.

Sunderland: last five matches

Chelsea: last five matches

Sunderland vs Chelsea head to head

In their last two meetings in our data, Sunderland won 2, Chelsea won none and none was drawn. The most recent, on 24 May 2026, finished Sunderland 2–1 Chelsea.

How the odds have moved

Megapari's price on Chelsea has drifted from 1.96 to 2.15 since the line opened: the market rates them lower than it did at the open. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 2.01 to 1.89, so the market now expects more goals than at the open.

Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

The rest of the Premier League is on our Premier League page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.