Sunderland vs Dinamo Zagreb prediction: UEFA Europa League, Thursday 5 November

Sunderland host Dinamo Zagreb in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday 5 November, kick-off 23:00 EAT. The match is played at Stadium of Light (Sunderland). Sunderland are 9th in the table with 7 points from 3 games; Dinamo Zagreb are 18th with 4.

Who will win Sunderland vs Dinamo Zagreb?

Sunderland are favourites, though not by much: 57% to win, 23% for the draw and 20% for Dinamo Zagreb. Megapari's 1.47 on Sunderland is shorter than our fair price of 1.75: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.

Two markets clear our thresholds for this match: Sunderland to win (57%) and Sunderland or draw (80%).

Odds: Megapari, as of 29 October 2026, 23:47 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Sunderland vs Dinamo Zagreb

Expected goals are 1.6 for Sunderland and 1.1 for Dinamo Zagreb, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 55%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 53%.

Sunderland vs Dinamo Zagreb correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-1 at 12%, ahead of 1-0 (10%) and 2-1 (10%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.

Form: Sunderland and Dinamo Zagreb in their last five

Sunderland have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -3. Dinamo Zagreb have won 3 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +3. The results cover every competition in our data.

Sunderland: last five matches

Dinamo Zagreb: last five matches

Sunderland vs Dinamo Zagreb head to head

Sunderland and Dinamo Zagreb have not met in the matches our data covers, which go back three seasons.

How the odds have moved

Megapari's price on Sunderland has drifted from 1.45 to 1.47 since the line opened: the market rates them lower than it did at the open. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.64 to 1.68, so the market now expects fewer goals than at the open.

Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

The rest of the UEFA Europa League is on our Europa League page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.