SV 07 Elversberg vs Mainz prediction: Bundesliga, Friday 30 October

SV 07 Elversberg host Mainz in the Bundesliga on Friday 30 October, kick-off 22:30 EAT. The match is played at Waldstadion an der Kaiserlinde (Spiesen-Elversberg). SV 07 Elversberg are 6th in the table with 10 points from 6 games; Mainz are 5th with 10.

Who will win SV 07 Elversberg vs Mainz?

There is little to separate the sides: SV 07 Elversberg 34%, the draw 25%, Mainz 40%. Megapari's 2.13 on Mainz is shorter than our fair price of 2.47: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.

One market clears our thresholds for this match: both teams to score: yes (60%).

Odds: Megapari, as of 23 October 2026, 23:43 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in SV 07 Elversberg vs Mainz

Expected goals are 1.5 for SV 07 Elversberg and 1.4 for Mainz, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 58%. Both teams score in this match with a probability of 60%.

SV 07 Elversberg vs Mainz correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-1 at 12%, ahead of 2-1 (9%) and 1-0 (8%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.

Form: SV 07 Elversberg and Mainz in their last five

SV 07 Elversberg have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +0. Mainz have won 3 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +4. The results cover every competition in our data.

SV 07 Elversberg: last five matches

Mainz: last five matches

SV 07 Elversberg vs Mainz head to head

SV 07 Elversberg and Mainz have not met in the matches our data covers, which go back three seasons.

How the odds have moved

Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.48 to 1.53, so the market now expects fewer goals than at the open.

Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

The rest of the Bundesliga is on our Bundesliga page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.