Toulouse vs Strasbourg prediction: Ligue 1, Friday 6 November

Toulouse host Strasbourg in Ligue 1 on Friday 6 November, kick-off 22:45 EAT. The match is played at Municipal (Toulouse). Toulouse are 11th in the table with 10 points from 8 games; Strasbourg are 16th with 7.

Who will win Toulouse vs Strasbourg?

There is little to separate the sides: Toulouse 45%, the draw 25%, Strasbourg 30%. Megapari's 2.08 on Toulouse is shorter than our fair price of 2.23: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.

One market clears our thresholds for this match: both teams to score: yes (59%).

Odds: Megapari, as of 31 October 2026, 17:08 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Toulouse vs Strasbourg

Expected goals are 1.6 for Toulouse and 1.4 for Strasbourg, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 57%. Both teams score in this match with a probability of 59%.

Toulouse vs Strasbourg correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-1 at 12%, ahead of 2-1 (9%) and 1-0 (8%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.

Form: Toulouse and Strasbourg in their last five

Toulouse are unbeaten in 5 (2 wins, 3 draws), with 10 goals scored and 6 conceded. Strasbourg have not won in 5 (1 draw, 4 defeats) and scored 4 in that run. The results cover every competition in our data.

Toulouse: last five matches

Strasbourg: last five matches

Toulouse vs Strasbourg head to head

In their last five meetings in our data, Toulouse won 2, Strasbourg won 2 and 1 was drawn. The most recent, on 3 May 2026, finished Strasbourg 1–2 Toulouse.

How the odds have moved

Megapari's price on Toulouse has drifted from 2.03 to 2.08 since the line opened: the market rates them lower than it did at the open. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.70 to 1.66, so the market now expects more goals than at the open.

Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

The rest of Ligue 1 is on our Ligue 1 page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.