Troyes vs Le Mans prediction: Ligue 1, Saturday 31 October

Troyes host Le Mans in Ligue 1 on Saturday 31 October, kick-off 22:45 EAT. The match is played at Stade de l'Aube (Troyes). Troyes are 17th in the table with 4 points from 7 games; Le Mans are 16th with 6.

Who will win Troyes vs Le Mans?

There is little to separate the sides: Troyes 40%, the draw 27%, Le Mans 32%. Megapari's 2.22 on Troyes is shorter than our fair price of 2.47: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.

No market clears our thresholds for this match, so it carries no tip in the daily lists; the table below is the model's full view of it.

Odds: Megapari, as of 24 October 2026, 23:48 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Troyes vs Le Mans

Expected goals are 1.3 for Troyes and 1.3 for Le Mans, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 52%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 55%.

Troyes vs Le Mans correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-1 at 13%, ahead of 1-0 (9%) and 0-1 (9%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.

Form: Troyes and Le Mans in their last five

Troyes have not won in 5 (0 draws, 5 defeats) and scored 3 in that run. Le Mans have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -4. The results cover every competition in our data.

Troyes: last five matches

Le Mans: last five matches

Troyes vs Le Mans head to head

In their last two meetings in our data, Troyes won none, Le Mans won 1 and 1 was drawn. The most recent, on 31 January 2026, finished Troyes 0–2 Le Mans.

How the odds have moved

Megapari's price on Troyes has drifted from 2.20 to 2.22 since the line opened: the market rates them lower than it did at the open. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.79 to 1.88, so the market now expects fewer goals than at the open.

Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

The rest of Ligue 1 is on our Ligue 1 page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.