UPDF vs URA prediction: Uganda Premier League, Tuesday 27 October

UPDF host URA in the Uganda Premier League on Tuesday 27 October, kick-off 16:00 EAT. UPDF are 10th in the table with 8 points from 6 games; URA are 15th with 4.

Who will win UPDF vs URA?

There is little to separate the sides: UPDF 32%, the draw 34%, URA 34%. At 34% the draw is a real option, more likely than in most matches.

Three markets clear our thresholds for this match: draw (34%), under 2.5 goals (63%) and under 3.5 goals (83%).

Goals in UPDF vs URA

The numbers point to a tight game: expected goals of 0.9 and 0.9, and under 2.5 goals at 63%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 46%.

UPDF vs URA correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 0-0 at 16%, ahead of 0-1 (14%) and 1-1 (14%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 6 matches like this one.

Form: UPDF and URA in their last five

UPDF have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -1. URA have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -4. The results cover every competition in our data.

UPDF: last five matches

URA: last five matches

UPDF vs URA head to head

In their last five meetings in our data, UPDF won none, URA won 3 and 2 were drawn. The most recent, on 24 April 2026, finished UPDF 0–0 URA.

The rest of the Uganda Premier League is on our Uganda Premier League page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.