Serie A
US Lecce vs Genoa CFC prediction: Serie A, Sunday 1 November
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
US Lecce host Genoa CFC in Serie A on Sunday 1 November, kick-off 20:00 EAT. The match is played at Comunale Via del Mare (Lecce). US Lecce are 12th in the table with 9 points from 7 games; Genoa CFC are 16th with 7.
Who will win US Lecce vs Genoa CFC?
There is little to separate the sides: US Lecce 32%, the draw 32%, Genoa CFC 36%. At 32% the draw is a real option, more likely than in most matches. Megapari's 2.70 on Genoa CFC sits right on our fair price of 2.74.
Two markets clear our thresholds for this match: draw (32%) and under 3.5 goals (81%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | Megapari |
|---|---|---|---|
| US Lecce to win | 32% | 3.12 | 2.99 |
| Draw Tip | 32% | 3.17 | 3.22 |
| Genoa CFC to win | 36% | 2.74 | 2.70 |
| US Lecce or draw | 64% | 1.57 | 1.53 |
| Draw or Genoa CFC | 68% | 1.47 | 1.45 |
| US Lecce or Genoa CFC | 68% | 1.46 | 1.40 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 66% | 1.52 | 1.45 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 2.51 | 2.46 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 60% | 1.66 | 1.64 |
| Under 3.5 goals Tip | 81% | 1.23 | 1.20 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 47% | 2.11 | 1.95 |
| Both teams to score: no | 53% | 1.90 | 1.78 |
Odds: Megapari, as of 25 October 2026, 23:49 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in US Lecce vs Genoa CFC
The numbers point to a tight game: expected goals of 0.9 and 1.0, and under 2.5 goals at 60%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 47%.
US Lecce vs Genoa CFC correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 0-0 at 15%, ahead of 1-1 (14%) and 0-1 (14%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 7 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | 14.8% | 6.77 |
| 1-1 | 14.2% | 7.06 |
| 0-1 | 13.9% | 7.22 |
| 1-0 | 12.4% | 8.05 |
| 0-2 | 7.5% | 13.37 |
Form: US Lecce and Genoa CFC in their last five
US Lecce have won 2 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -2. Genoa CFC have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -1. The results cover every competition in our data.
US Lecce: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Oct 2026 | Juventus (home)Serie A | 0-2 | L |
| 18 Oct 2026 | Udinese (away)Serie A | 3-0 | W |
| 11 Oct 2026 | Bologna (home)Serie A | 1-2 | L |
| 20 Sep 2026 | AC Milan (away)Serie A | 0-3 | L |
| 13 Sep 2026 | Monza (home)Serie A | 3-2 | W |
Genoa CFC: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Oct 2026 | Venezia (home)Serie A | 1-0 | W |
| 17 Oct 2026 | Roma (away)Serie A | 0-2 | L |
| 10 Oct 2026 | Fiorentina (home)Serie A | 2-1 | W |
| 20 Sep 2026 | Parma (away)Serie A | 1-2 | L |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Frosinone (home)Serie A | 1-1 | D |
US Lecce vs Genoa CFC head to head
In their last five meetings in our data, US Lecce won 1, Genoa CFC won 2 and 2 were drawn. The most recent, on 24 May 2026, finished US Lecce 1–0 Genoa CFC.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 24 May 2026 | US Lecce – Genoa CFCSerie A | 1-0 |
| 23 Aug 2025 | Genoa CFC – US LecceSerie A | 0-0 |
| 14 Mar 2025 | Genoa CFC – US LecceSerie A | 2-1 |
| 5 Jan 2025 | US Lecce – Genoa CFCSerie A | 0-0 |
| 28 Jan 2024 | Genoa CFC – US LecceSerie A | 2-1 |
The rest of Serie A is on our Serie A page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
+100% bonus on your first deposit with promo code TIPSQUANT