US Sassuolo vs Fiorentina prediction: Serie A, Monday 2 November

US Sassuolo host Fiorentina in Serie A on Monday 2 November, kick-off 20:30 EAT. The match is played at Mapei Stadium – Città del Tricolore (Reggio Emilia). US Sassuolo are 14th in the table with 8 points from 8 games; Fiorentina are 18th with 4.

Who will win US Sassuolo vs Fiorentina?

There is little to separate the sides: US Sassuolo 38%, the draw 26%, Fiorentina 35%. Megapari's 2.57 on US Sassuolo sits right on our fair price of 2.61.

One market clears our thresholds for this match: both teams to score: yes (59%).

Odds: Megapari, as of 26 October 2026, 23:48 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in US Sassuolo vs Fiorentina

Expected goals are 1.5 for US Sassuolo and 1.4 for Fiorentina, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 56%. Both teams score in this match with a probability of 59%.

US Sassuolo vs Fiorentina correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-1 at 12%, ahead of 2-1 (9%) and 1-2 (8%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.

Form: US Sassuolo and Fiorentina in their last five

US Sassuolo have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -4. Fiorentina have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -2. The results cover every competition in our data.

US Sassuolo: last five matches

Fiorentina: last five matches

US Sassuolo vs Fiorentina head to head

In their last four meetings in our data, US Sassuolo won 2, Fiorentina won 1 and 1 was drawn. The most recent, on 26 April 2026, finished Fiorentina 0–0 US Sassuolo.

How the odds have moved

Megapari's price on US Sassuolo has shortened from 2.69 to 2.57 since the line opened: the market has moved towards them. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.72 to 1.72, so the market now expects more goals than at the open.

Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

The rest of Serie A is on our Serie A page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.