US Sassuolo vs Lazio prediction: Serie A, Tuesday 27 October

US Sassuolo host Lazio in Serie A on Tuesday 27 October, kick-off 20:30 EAT. The match is played at Mapei Stadium – Città del Tricolore (Reggio Emilia). US Sassuolo are 13th in the table with 8 points from 7 games; Lazio are 2nd with 19.

Who will win US Sassuolo vs Lazio?

There is little to separate the sides: US Sassuolo 30%, the draw 27%, Lazio 43%. Megapari pays 2.53 on Lazio, more than our fair price of 2.34.

No market clears our thresholds for this match, so it carries no tip in the daily lists; the table below is the model's full view of it.

Odds: Megapari, as of 21 October 2026, 05:07 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in US Sassuolo vs Lazio

Expected goals are 1.1 for US Sassuolo and 1.5 for Lazio, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 52%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 56%.

US Sassuolo vs Lazio correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-1 at 13%, ahead of 0-1 (11%) and 1-2 (9%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 8 matches like this one.

Form: US Sassuolo and Lazio in their last five

US Sassuolo have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -2. Lazio are unbeaten in 5 (4 wins, 1 draw), with 12 goals scored and 4 conceded. The results cover every competition in our data.

US Sassuolo: last five matches

Lazio: last five matches

US Sassuolo vs Lazio head to head

In their last four meetings in our data, US Sassuolo won 1, Lazio won 2 and 1 was drawn. The most recent, on 9 March 2026, finished Lazio 2–1 US Sassuolo.

The rest of Serie A is on our Serie A page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.