Valencia vs Real Madrid prediction: LaLiga, Saturday 7 November

Valencia host Real Madrid in LaLiga on Saturday 7 November, kick-off 23:00 EAT. The match is played at Mestalla (Valencia). Valencia are 19th in the table with 6 points from 10 games; Real Madrid are 3rd with 24.

Who will win Valencia vs Real Madrid?

The model makes Real Madrid clear favourites at 67%, with the draw at 20% and Valencia at 13%. Megapari's 1.40 on Real Madrid is shorter than our fair price of 1.49: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.

Three markets clear our thresholds for this match: Real Madrid to win (67%), draw or Real Madrid (87%) and over 2.5 goals (61%).

Odds: Megapari, as of 31 October 2026, 23:47 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Valencia vs Real Madrid

Goals are expected: 0.9 for Valencia and 2.0 for Real Madrid, 2.9 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 61%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 55%.

Valencia vs Real Madrid correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 0-2 at 11%, ahead of 0-1 (11%) and 1-1 (10%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 9 matches like this one.

Form: Valencia and Real Madrid in their last five

Valencia have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -1. Real Madrid have won all of their last 5, scoring 15 and conceding 6. The results cover every competition in our data.

Valencia: last five matches

Real Madrid: last five matches

Valencia vs Real Madrid head to head

In their last six meetings in our data, Valencia won 1, Real Madrid won 4 and 1 was drawn. The most recent, on 8 February 2026, finished Valencia 0–2 Real Madrid.

How the odds have moved

Megapari's price on Real Madrid has drifted from 1.37 to 1.40 since the line opened: the market rates them lower than it did at the open. Over 2.5 goals has moved from 1.43 to 1.42, so the market now expects more goals than at the open.

Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

The rest of LaLiga is on our La Liga page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.