LaLiga
Villarreal vs Espanyol prediction: LaLiga, Friday 30 October
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Villarreal host Espanyol in LaLiga on Friday 30 October, kick-off 23:00 EAT. The match is played at Ceramica (Villarreal). Villarreal are 12th in the table with 9 points from 9 games; Espanyol are 16th with 8.
Who will win Villarreal vs Espanyol?
The model makes Villarreal clear favourites at 61%, with the draw at 22% and Espanyol at 17%. Megapari's 1.60 on Villarreal sits right on our fair price of 1.63.
Two markets clear our thresholds for this match: Villarreal to win (61%) and Villarreal or draw (83%).
| Bet | Probability | Fair odds | Megapari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal to win Tip | 61% | 1.63 | 1.60 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.65 | 4.62 |
| Espanyol to win | 17% | 5.88 | 5.70 |
| Villarreal or draw Tip | 83% | 1.21 | 1.18 |
| Draw or Espanyol | 39% | 2.60 | 2.49 |
| Villarreal or Espanyol | 78% | 1.27 | 1.24 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | 1.29 | 1.18 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 1.74 | 1.66 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43% | 2.35 | 2.42 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 67% | 1.49 | 1.54 |
| Both teams to score: yes | 55% | 1.82 | 1.65 |
| Both teams to score: no | 45% | 2.22 | 2.13 |
Odds: Megapari, as of 23 October 2026, 23:43 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Goals in Villarreal vs Espanyol
Expected goals are 2.0 for Villarreal and 0.9 for Espanyol, and over 2.5 goals is close to even at 57%. Both teams to score is close to a coin flip at 55%.
Villarreal vs Espanyol correct score prediction
The single most likely score is 2-0 at 10%, ahead of 1-1 (10%) and 1-0 (10%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 10 matches like this one.
| Correct score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2-0 | 10.4% | 9.60 |
| 1-1 | 10.3% | 9.73 |
| 1-0 | 10.0% | 10.03 |
| 2-1 | 10.0% | 10.05 |
| 3-0 | 7.0% | 14.31 |
Form: Villarreal and Espanyol in their last five
Villarreal have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +2. Espanyol have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5, with a goal difference of -2. The results cover every competition in our data.
Villarreal: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Oct 2026 | Liverpool (away)UEFA Champions League | 3-4 | L |
| 17 Oct 2026 | Elche (home)LaLiga | 0-0 | D |
| 13 Oct 2026 | Napoli (home)UEFA Champions League | 3-1 | W |
| 10 Oct 2026 | Real Madrid (away)LaLiga | 0-1 | L |
| 20 Sep 2026 | Levante UD (home)LaLiga | 3-1 | W |
Espanyol: last five matches
| Date | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct 2026 | Atlético Madrid (home)LaLiga | 0-1 | L |
| 9 Oct 2026 | Malaga (away)LaLiga | 1-1 | D |
| 18 Sep 2026 | Elche (home)LaLiga | 1-3 | L |
| 15 Sep 2026 | Rayo Vallecano (away)LaLiga | 1-2 | L |
| 12 Sep 2026 | CA Osasuna (away)LaLiga | 2-0 | W |
Villarreal vs Espanyol head to head
In their last four meetings in our data, Villarreal won 4, Espanyol won none and none was drawn. The most recent, on 9 February 2026, finished Villarreal 4–1 Espanyol.
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 9 Feb 2026 | Villarreal – EspanyolLaLiga | 4-1 |
| 8 Nov 2025 | Espanyol – VillarrealLaLiga | 0-2 |
| 27 Apr 2025 | Villarreal – EspanyolLaLiga | 1-0 |
| 26 Sep 2024 | Espanyol – VillarrealLaLiga | 1-2 |
The rest of LaLiga is on our La Liga page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.
How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
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