Villarreal vs PSG prediction: UEFA Champions League, Tuesday 3 November

Villarreal host PSG in the UEFA Champions League on Tuesday 3 November, kick-off 23:00 EAT. The match is played at Ceramica (Villarreal). Villarreal are 19th in the table with 3 points from 3 games; PSG are 1st with 9.

Who will win Villarreal vs PSG?

PSG are favourites, though not by much: 57% to win, 21% for the draw and 22% for Villarreal. Megapari's 1.65 on PSG is shorter than our fair price of 1.76: the bookmaker rates them a little higher than the model does.

Four markets clear our thresholds for this match: PSG to win (57%), over 1.5 goals (84%), over 2.5 goals (68%) and both teams to score: yes (64%).

Odds: Megapari, as of 27 October 2026, 23:46 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.

Goals in Villarreal vs PSG

Goals are expected: 1.5 for Villarreal and 2.3 for PSG, 3.8 in all, which puts over 2.5 goals at 68%. Both teams score in this match with a probability of 64%.

Villarreal vs PSG correct score prediction

The single most likely score is 1-2 at 9%, ahead of 1-1 (8%) and 2-2 (7%). Even the top score comes up only about once in 11 matches like this one.

Form: Villarreal and PSG in their last five

Villarreal have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, with a goal difference of +1. PSG have won all of their last 5, scoring 16 and conceding 6. The results cover every competition in our data.

Villarreal: last five matches

PSG: last five matches

Villarreal vs PSG head to head

Villarreal and PSG have not met in the matches our data covers, which go back three seasons.

How the odds have moved

Megapari's price on PSG has shortened from 1.70 to 1.65 since the line opened: the market has moved towards them.

Prices from Megapari: the first one we recorded and the latest before kick-off.

The rest of the UEFA Champions League is on our Champions League page and all the matches we cover this week are listed on Match predictions.

How these numbers are made: attack and defence ratings fitted on three seasons of results with an adjusted Poisson model, probabilities calibrated on past seasons, and the match result, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score figures blended half and half with Megapari's odds once the margin is removed. The page updates four times a day until kick-off; from then on it stays as it was, and the result is added after the match. Methodology. Track record.