Home win predictions: the home sides the model rates at 55% or more, plus today's away wins
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Last 30 days: 1731 tips, 1279 won (74%) Track record
Monday 19 October: our model analysed 51 matches across 30 competitions and 15 meet the threshold for this market. The strongest still to play is Al-Hilal Riyadh v Al Hazem Rass (Al-Hilal Riyadh to win, 87%).
Home win predictions for today
-
FTClub Cienciano CuscoUniversidad Tecnica de CajamarcaPeruvian Liga 1Club Cienciano Cusco to win75%fair 1.331.191-0Won
-
Universitatea ClujArges PitestiRomanian Liga IUniversitatea Cluj to win57%fair 1.75
-
OmoniaOlympiakos NicosiaCypriot First DivisionOmonia to win77%fair 1.29
-
BursasporPendiksporTFF 1. LigBursaspor to win67%fair 1.49
-
Al-MasryAbu Qair SemadEgyptian Premier LeagueAl-Masry to win58%fair 1.73
-
Al-Hilal RiyadhAl Hazem RassSaudi Pro LeagueAl-Hilal Riyadh to win87%fair 1.15
-
BragaGil VicentePrimeira LigaBraga to win58%fair 1.72
Odds: Megapari, as of 19 October 2026, 17:08 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
"Home win" is one of the most common things readers type before they open their betting app, often with "sure" or "tomorrow" added. This page answers the plain version. It lists every home team the model rates at 55% or more to win today, the same for tomorrow, and then today's away wins, which clear the same bar against the home edge. No home win is ever certain, and each row shows the probability and the fair odds so you can see how often it should land.
What home advantage is worth
The model gives every competition its own home advantage, fitted from results rather than assumed. It works as a boost to the home side's expected goals: the same two teams produce a different forecast depending on whose ground it is. The size of that boost varies a lot. In the results the model is fitted on, home sides in the NPFL won close to two matches in three and away wins came about once in eight. The Ghana Premier League also leans heavily towards the home team. In the big European leagues the edge is smaller, and a strong visitor overturns it more often.
Reading a home win row
The probability matters more than the name. A home side at 56% loses or draws more than four times in ten; one at 80% still slips about once in five. Fair odds are one divided by the probability, so 56% is fair at about 1.79 and 80% at 1.25. When your bookmaker pays more than the fair odds, the model thinks the price is on your side. When it pays less, you are paying for the home team's reputation.
Home win predictions for tomorrow
-
Al DraihAl-RiyadhSaudi Pro LeagueAl Draih to win56%fair 1.78
-
Al NassrNeomSaudi Pro LeagueAl Nassr to win65%fair 1.53
-
BarnetSwindon TownEFL League TwoBarnet to win61%fair 1.65
-
Luton TownBarnsleyEFL League OneLuton Town to win61%fair 1.65
-
York CityAccrington StanleyEFL League TwoYork City to win60%fair 1.66
-
Huddersfield TownPeterborough UnitedEFL League OneHuddersfield Town to win60%fair 1.67
-
Wolves to win59%fair 1.70
-
Roma to win80%fair 1.25
-
Man City to win78%fair 1.29
-
Liverpool to win67%fair 1.49
-
Porto to win56%fair 1.79
Odds: Megapari, as of 19 October 2026, 17:08 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
Home win, 1X or draw no bet
When a home favourite sits between 55% and 70%, the draw is a real risk. Double chance 1X covers it at a shorter price, and the model prints that tip only from 80%. Draw no bet returns your stake on a draw. A home -0.5 handicap is simply the home win under another name; the handicap guide explains the other lines.
Away wins: the rarer call
An away win tip has to reach 55% against the home edge, so it usually means a much stronger side visiting a weak one. In leagues with a heavy home advantage they barely appear, while European competitions and leagues with a few dominant clubs produce more. Lower odds do not make an away favourite safer.
Away win predictions for today
-
Al FeihaAl-Ahli JeddahSaudi Pro LeagueAl-Ahli Jeddah to win70%fair 1.43
Odds: Megapari, as of 19 October 2026, 17:08 EAT. Prices move; check the bookmaker before you bet.
When the home side lets you down
The model knows results and, where bookmaker odds are available, the market's view. It does not know that the home coach is resting players before a cup tie, that the pitch is waterlogged, or that the striker picked up a knock in training. A home team that has just changed managers or sold key players is still rated on old results for a few weeks. Check the team news for every home side you back.
How we pick
Every tip comes from the Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model described on the methodology page, blended half and half with the bookmaker's implied probability where odds exist. Tips are logged before kick-off and settled on the track record page.
Before you bet
Any bet can lose, and a slip of five home wins loses whenever one of them draws. Kick-off times are in East Africa Time and the site converts them; Nigeria is two hours behind EAT and Ghana three. TipsQuant is for adults aged 18+ only; see responsible gambling for limits and support.
Home wins and every other tip, settled over 30 days
- Tips
- 1731
- Won
- 1279
- Lost
- 452
- Hit rate
- 74%
| Market | Tips | Won | Hit rate | Profit at listed odds (1 unit stakes) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | 343 | 227 | 66% | -2.63 |
| Double chance | 292 | 263 | 90% | – |
| Over/Under 1.5 goals | 306 | 254 | 83% | -26.67 |
| Over/Under 2.5 goals | 248 | 162 | 65% | – |
| Over/Under 3.5 goals | 269 | 211 | 78% | – |
| Both teams to score | 273 | 162 | 59% | -38.98 |
Every tip is logged before kick-off and settled automatically from the final score. Nothing is edited after the match.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
+100% bonus on your first deposit with promo code TIPSQUANT
Frequently asked questions
What counts as a home win in betting?
The home team must be ahead after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. It is the 1 in the 1X2 market, so a draw loses the bet just like an away win does. In a cup tie, extra time and penalties do not count.
Is there a sure home win prediction for tomorrow?
People search for one, but no tip is ever sure. The tomorrow table lists every home side the model rates at 55% or more, and even a home team at 80% fails to win about one match in five. Read the probability as how often a tip like it should land, not as a promise.
When is the home win prediction for tomorrow updated?
With every data refresh, at about 02:00, 09:00, 14:00 and 20:40 UTC. The overnight refresh adds today's results to the ratings, and odds for smaller leagues often appear only a day or two ahead, so tomorrow's list can change before it becomes today's.
Why are there more home win tips than away win tips?
Because home advantage is real in almost every league we cover, and the model fits it separately for each competition. Both sides need the same 55% to get a tip, but the home team starts with that edge, so far more home sides reach the bar.
Where are the away win predictions?
Today's away win tips are in the last table on this page. For tomorrow's, the straight win page lists home and away tips together, and the 1X2 page adds the draw tips.
Should I back a home win or 1X?
A home win pays more and loses on a draw; 1X pays less and survives one. The model prints a 1X tip only from 80%, so a home side that appears in both lists is very unlikely to lose. Draw no bet sits in between and refunds the stake on a draw.