Basketball over/under predictions: the main points line for every game, and the totals we tip
TipsQuant editorial team · Updated
Last 30 days: 85 tips, 58 won (68%) Basketball
Basketball over/under tips for today
No basketball tip for this day yet: a tip appears only when the numbers lean clearly to one side.
This page keeps one basketball market: total points, the over/under. For every game in our basketball predictions where the bookmaker prices a total, we show its main points line and our chance that the two teams together score more than it. A tip appears when the over or the under reaches 56%. The tables refresh four times a day. Any bet can lose, and betting is for adults aged 18+ only.
How a total settles
Add both teams' points at the final buzzer, overtime included, and compare the sum with the line. Over 164.5 needs 165 points or more; under 164.5 wins with 164 or fewer. On a whole-number line, a total landing exactly on it is void and the stake comes back.
The row shows over or under with the line, our chance, its fair odds and Megapari's price where it has one. A 58% over has fair odds of about 1.72; a longer price pays more than the model's figure, a shorter one less.
Why NBA totals sit so far above European ones
An NBA game lasts 48 minutes; games in the European leagues and cups, the BAL and Australia's NBL last 40. The eight extra minutes alone turn a 165-point game into about 198, and the NBA's faster pace adds the rest, so its main lines usually sit above 215. European club games mostly have main lines between the high 150s and the low 180s; the NBL tends to run higher. A total means something only inside its own competition, which is why the model gives each one its own scoring level.
Over 150, and other lines we do not price
Our chance belongs to the main line alone, the pair of totals priced closest to even money. An "over 150 prediction" usually means an alternative line well below a European game's main line, and we print no number for it.
You can judge one roughly. Add the two numbers of the projected score in the full table to get our expected total; the model treats the real total as spread around it by about 16 to 19 points. A line about eight points below the expected total is cleared roughly two times in three, one about seventeen points below roughly five times in six. That is why such lines pay so little.
A main line that moves before tip-off works the same way. If the table shows 162.5 and your app now shows 166.5, the over needs four more points and its real chance is lower than ours.
Basketball totals predictions for tomorrow
No basketball tip for this day yet: a tip appears only when the numbers lean clearly to one side.
Why 56%, and why so few total tips
The main line splits the money about evenly, and our published total is 30% model and 70% that line. With a spread of 16 to 19 points, reaching 56% means the model on its own has to see the total roughly eight to ten points away from the line. Most games never get that far, and any edge over the bookmaker's own total is small.
A team needs eight games in the last year for a rating; until then its row is marked "from the odds" and gets no tip. Total tips also wait until both teams have played five games this season. The model's only input is scores, so a rested star or a second game on consecutive nights reaches our number only through the bookmaker's line, which makes up 70% of it.
Every basketball game today, with the points line and our chance of the over
| Game | 1 | 2 | Projected score | Handicap | Total points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia 76ers – New York KnicksFT 106-100 · NBA | 40% | 60% | 108–111 | – | – |
| New York Knicks – Philadelphia 76ers · awaiting result · NBA | 65% | 35% | 117–111 | −4.554% | 232over 42% |
| San Antonio Spurs – Oklahoma City ThunderLive · NBA | 55% | 45% | 116–114 | −152% | 231.5over 46% |
| Tasmania JackJumpers – Brisbane Bullets · NBL (Australia) | 74% | 26% | 98–88 | −1050% | 188over 46% |
| Taurage – Rytas Vilnius · LKL (Lithuania) · from the odds | 16% | 84% | 82–94 | +11.550% | 175.5over 50% |
| AEK Athens – Antwerp Giants · Basketball Champions League · from the odds | 64% | 36% | 87–83 | −4.550% | 170.5over 50% |
| U-BT Cluj-Napoca – London Lions · EuroCup | 68% | 32% | 89–83 | −6.550% | 173.5over 46% |
| Hapoel Tel Aviv – Virtus Granarolo Bologna · EuroLeague | 75% | 25% | 91–83 | −849% | 175over 47% |
| Bnei Herzliya – Porto · Basketball Champions League · from the odds | 61% | 39% | 86–83 | −3.550% | 169.5over 50% |
| Cedevita Olimpija – Le Mans Sarthe · EuroCup | 59% | 41% | 84–81 | −2.552% | 164.5over 53% |
| Derthona – Burgos · EuroCup | 56% | 44% | 87–85 | −4.543% | 173over 50% |
| Niners Chemnitz – Slask Wroclaw · EuroCup | 68% | 32% | 89–82 | −7.547% | 170over 53% |
| P.A.O.K. – Ratiopharm Ulm · EuroCup | 82% | 18% | 91–78 | −15.542% | 167.5over 54% |
| KK Bosna – Bahcesehir Koleji · EuroCup | 25% | 75% | 78–88 | +10.554% | 166.5over 49% |
| JL Bourg – Aquila Trento · EuroCup | 67% | 33% | 87–81 | −651% | 167.5over 50% |
| Skyliners Frankfurt – La Laguna Tenerife · EuroCup | 24% | 76% | 80–89 | +8.547% | 169.5over 49% |
| FIATC Joventut Badalona – Telekom Bonn · Basketball Champions League | 81% | 19% | 88–77 | −1053% | 166.5over 46% |
| Reggio Emilia – Juventus Utena · Basketball Champions League | 77% | 23% | 88–79 | −8.551% | 167over 52% |
| Hapoel Jerusalem – Rigas Zelli · EuroCup · from the odds | 91% | 9% | 94–75 | −1950% | 169.5over 50% |
| Napoli Basket – Tofas · EuroCup | 62% | 38% | 87–83 | −4.549% | 168.5over 53% |
| Maxima Roma – Reyer Venezia Mestre · EuroCup · from the odds | 46% | 54% | 86–87 | +1.550% | 173.5over 50% |
1 and 2 are each team's chance to win the game, overtime included. Handicap: the bookmaker's main line for the home team and our chance that the home team covers it. Total: the bookmaker's main points line and our chance that the game goes over it. Rows marked “from the odds” involve a team with too few recent games for our ratings: their numbers are the bookmaker's prices with the margin removed.
Reading the total column
It shows the main points line and our chance of the over; the under is the rest of 100%. Kick-off times show in EAT and switch to your phone's time zone; Lagos runs two hours behind Nairobi, Accra three. NBA games alone sit on NBA predictions, handicaps on basketball handicap predictions.
How we pick, and how the totals have done
The model and its blend with the bookmaker's lines are set out on basketball predictions; the logging rules both sports share are on the methodology page. The record below counts total tips alone, each logged before tip-off and settled from the final score, overtime included. If our chances are right, tips at 56% to 60% win slightly more often than they lose over many games; a single month can swing either way. It is kept apart from the football track record.
Basketball total tips settled over the last 30 days
- Tips
- 1
- Won
- 0
- Lost
- 1
- Hit rate
- 0%
Basketball tips are logged before tip-off and settled automatically from the final score, overtime included. A handicap or total that lands exactly on the line is void. They are counted on their own, apart from the football record.
Before you bet
A total can turn on one late three-pointer. Fix your stake first, never chase a loss, and use the limits on our responsible gambling page. Several totals on one slip multiply the risk, as the accumulator calculator shows.
Where to place this bet
Our recommended bookmaker for these markets is Megapari.
+100% bonus on your first deposit with promo code TIPSQUANT
Frequently asked questions
Where are today's basketball under/over predictions?
In the first table on this page, with tomorrow's further down. Each row names the side of the total we tip, the line, our probability and the fair odds. An NBA game that tips off after midnight in Nairobi is listed under the next day's date.
Do you give a basketball over 150 prediction?
Only when the bookmaker's main line for a game is at or near 150, which can happen in a low-scoring 40-minute game and never in the NBA. For an alternative line below the main one we print no number; the section on lines we do not price shows how to judge one roughly.
How is your basketball total points prediction worked out?
The model expects a total from each team's attack and defence ratings in points and the competition's scoring level. That figure is mixed with the bookmaker's main total, 30% model and 70% line, and the real total is treated as spread around it by about 16 to 19 points. The share of that spread above the line is our chance of the over.
Do overtime points count in basketball totals?
Yes, in the usual total points market every point scored, overtime included, goes into the total; some apps also sell a regulation-time total that leaves overtime out, so check the market name. A level game gets five more minutes, which helps the over.
Why is there no total tip for the game I want?
Our chance of both the over and the under is below 56%, a team has too few games in the last year for a rating, one side has not yet played five games this season, or the bookmaker has not priced a total. Without a line there is no tip.
Can I combine several totals in one slip?
You can, but the chances multiply. Three totals at 58% each land together about one time in five. The accumulator calculator shows the total odds and the drop in probability before you place it.